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reddit.com[OC] How reliable is the weather forecast across the US? (to within 3°F)
The improvements in weather forecasts are a result of two features of their discipline. First meteorologists get a lot of feedback—weather predictions play out daily, a reality check that helps keep them well-calibrated. This advantage is not available to climate forecasters and is one of the best reasons to be skeptical about their predictions, si
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience — EA Forum
Charles Dillonforum.effectivealtruism.org
Floehr’s analysis uncovered two big trends in weather prediction. One was toward greater relative accuracy in the private sector—which of course was totally dependent on the National Weather Service data for its forecasts. The other was the astonishing improvement in all weather predictions. The five-day-out forecast in 2016 was as accurate as the
... See moreMichael Lewis • The Fifth Risk
About the same rate persisted in the 2000s and Washington experienced a record heat wave in 2012. In his paper, Hansen had also made these predictions for three other cities: Omaha, Memphis, and New York. These results were more mixed and go to illustrate the regional variability of the climate. Just 1 out of 10 summers in Omaha in the 1990s qualif
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