Problem choice and decision trees in science and engineering: Cell

Projects rarely unfold in a linear fashion; they require frequent course correction. Most trainees should spend more time on a project’s decision tree than they currently do. Once you get into a project, you will have learned from your initial experiments, new papers will have been published, and technology will have advanced. As a result, at any d... See more

the idea here is not to eliminate risk—risk-free projects tend to be incremental. Instead, the goal is to name, quantify, and work steadily to chip away at risk. As a corollary, when presenting an idea for a new project or startup company, be candid about risk—it has the paradoxical effect of making your case more convincing.

Once you choose a project, you are confined to a relatively narrow band of impact (

Figure 1

B); barring an unexpected surprise, the solution to a mediocre problem will have incremental impact, whereas solving an important problem will have greater impact. Even if you execute well, it is hard to make the solution to a middling problem interesting. In... See more

It can help to reverse the polarity of our relationship with new ideas. We often treat them with reverence; before long, confirmation bias sets in and we begin looking for reasons why they will succeed and ignoring evidence suggesting they might fail. A common failure mode is to jump on the first idea and get started—this is probably the worst thin... See more