Probability Theory
the role of probabilities and values
Gary Gutting • What Philosophy Can Do
Bayes’ rule is a description of how to reason rationally under conditions of uncertainty.
Grace Lindsay • Models of the Mind
More than that. All decision-making under uncertainty is Bayesian – or to put it more accurately, Bayes’ theorem represents ideal decision-making, and the extent to which an agent is obeying Bayes is the extent to which it’s making good decisions. Logic itself, all that stuff you may remember about ‘All men are mortal; Socrates is a man; ergo Socra
... See moreTom Chivers • Everything Is Predictable
Asymmetries: Finally, you need to think about something we might call “metaprobability”—the probability that your probability estimates themselves are any good.