Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

On AI policy : Lately, lots of powerful people have been balking about the idea of AI safety. At the woefully misnomered AI Action Summit in Paris, Vice President JD Vance dismissed the idea of AI safety and suggested that as long as America beat everyone else in creating superintelligence, the rest would all take care of itself.

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The emergence of the modern notion of sovereignty, along with trade, increased order, but the rise of nationalism and the erosion of the balance of power ultimately overwhelmed it and resulted in World War I. Similarly, World War II came about through failures of diplomacy, the reemergence of strident nationalism, the rise of protectionism, and a f

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There is a positive feedback loop between all these four factors. The threat of nuclear holocaust fosters pacifism; when pacifism spreads, war recedes and trade flourishes; and trade increases both the profits of peace and the costs of war. Over time, this feedback loop creates another obstacle to war, which may ultimately prove the most important

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