Presidential luck
That got me thinking: What would be the most interesting and useful information anyone could get their hands on?
Years ago I asked that question to Yale economist Robert Shiller. “The exact role of luck in successful outcomes,” he answered.
Morgan Housel
There is a large random factor in the success of any company. So the guys you end up reading about in the papers are the ones who are very smart, totally dedicated, and win the lottery.
Paul Graham • How to Make Wealth
As a general rule, the wilder the success, the more extreme and unlikely the circumstances that caused it. It's often a combination of the right genes, the right connections, the right timing, and a thousand other influences that nobody is wise enough to predict.