That got me thinking: What would be the most interesting and useful information anyone could get their hands on?

Years ago I asked that question to Yale economist Robert Shiller. “The exact role of luck in successful outcomes,” he answered.

But politics is still an area where circumstances change unexpectedly, unpredictably. When they do, careers are made and lost. Many late-blooming political careers were formed fortuitously.

comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages. Because luck plays a large role, the quality of leadership and management practices cannot be inferred reliably from observations of success. And even if you had perfect foreknowledge that a CEO has brilliant vision and extraordi