Presidential luck
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Presidential luck
That got me thinking: What would be the most interesting and useful information anyone could get their hands on?
Years ago I asked that question to Yale economist Robert Shiller. “The exact role of luck in successful outcomes,” he answered.
Morgan Housel
Thiel opposes the idea that luck is all-powerful. He encourages human agency and believes in the power of a single individual to bend the future to their will. Thiel believes we attribute too much to luck, which stops us from actually doing things.
David Perell • Peter Thiel’s Religion
The more extreme the outcome, the less likely you can apply its lessons to your own life, because the more likely the outcome was influenced by extreme ends of luck or risk.
Morgan Housel • The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness
We defined a “luck event” as one that meets three tests: First, you didn’t cause it; second, it has a significant potential consequence, good or bad; and third, it has an element of surprise, some aspect of the event is unpredictable before it happens. Using this definition, the evidence showed a lot of luck in the history of these companies. But—a
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