Prepare for a ‘Gray Swan’ Climate
The key is to properly prepare for whatever the system metes out, extreme or not. For the most part, people are scorched not by black swans, the unknown unknowns, but rather by their failure to prepare for gray swans.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Black swans are the unexpected outliers, the rare and unpredictable events that defy our usual expectations and profoundly impact our world. They are the surprises that no one sees coming, the game-changers that reshape the landscape of the possible.
Terence Faircloth added
But Taleb makes a careful, if overlooked, distinction: if we understand what the broader distribution looks like, the outcomes—however extreme—are correctly labeled as gray swans, not black swans. He calls them “modelable extreme events.”
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
The black swan is Nassim Taleb’s best-known idea, and the subject of his book of the same name. As Taleb points out, this simple little error of reasoning trips up experts every day, especially in the realm of finance. No-one can predict the inherently unpredictable. All the prior data might produce a lovely trendline that can be extrapolated out f
... See moreRichard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
We are entering an age of increasingly unpredictable climatological change. We are entering an age when we must remember that the most important ideas may not belong to human beings, but to bacteria and insects and entire geographies.
A Generous Uncertainty
dane cads added
Sophie Strand
We know a lot less about hundred-year floods than five-year floods—model error swells when it comes to small probabilities. The rarer the event, the less tractable, and the less we know about how frequent its occurrence—yet the rarer the event, the more confident these “scientists” involved in predicting, modeling, and using PowerPoint in conferenc... See more
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
These worsen predictability since almost everything in socioeconomic life now is dominated by Black Swans. Our sophistication continuously puts us ahead of ourselves, creating things we are less and less capable of understanding.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
Prepare for anomalies. Building a startup requires extraordinary adaptability. What seems fixed one day may be fluid the next. To capitalize on volatility, it’s worth preparing a playbook for low-probability, high-impact events. When the next Black Swan hits, your business will be ready.
Mario Gabriele • The Wisdom List: Leif Abraham
sari added