updated 3d ago
Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
The outside view asks if there are similar situations that can provide a statistical basis for making a decision. Rather than seeing a problem as unique, the outside view wants to know if others have faced comparable problems and, if so, what happened. The outside view is an unnatural way to think, precisely because it forces people to set aside al
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Moi Jamri added 2mo ago
These contrasting points of view reveal our first mistake, a tendency to favor the inside view over the outside view.6 An inside view considers a problem by focusing on the specific task and by using information that is close at hand, and makes predictions based on that narrow and unique set of inputs.
from Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin
Moi Jamri added 2mo ago
These inputs may include anecdotal evidence and fallacious perceptions. This is the approach that most people use in building models of the future and is indeed common for all forms of planning.
from Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin
Moi Jamri added 2mo ago
Financial incentives are generally easy to spot, but nonfinancial incentives, like reputation or fairness, are less obvious yet still important in driving decisions.
from Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin
Moi Jamri added 2mo ago
As networks harness the wisdom of crowds and computing power grows, the ability of experts to add value in their predictions is steadily declining. I call this the expert squeeze, and
from Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin
Moi Jamri added 2mo ago
The diversity prediction theorem tells us that a diverse crowd will always predict more accurately than the average person in the crowd. Not sometimes. Always.
from Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin
Moi Jamri added 2mo ago
They convincingly argue that we can easily nudge people toward a particular decision based solely on how we arrange the choices for them.
from Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin
Moi Jamri added 2mo ago
The central idea is called affect, or how the positive or negative emotional impression of a stimulus influences decisions. The basic concept is that how we feel about something influences how we decide about it. Affective responses occur quickly and automatically, are difficult to manage, and remain beyond our awareness.
from Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin
Moi Jamri added 2mo ago
Carefully consider the sample size.
from Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin
Moi Jamri added 2mo ago