Final Thoughts: Three Pillars Reiterated

I continue to view a three-pillar portfolio as an ideal framework for risk-managed investing.

A classic “60/40” stock and bond portfolio consists of two asset types that both prefer disinflation. Stocks generally prefer disinflationary growth, and bonds generally prefer disinflationary contraction. They’ve

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While most people see US stocks and particularly US AI stocks to be the best investments and hence the biggest investment story of 2025, it is indisputably true that the biggest returns (and hence the biggest story) came from 1) what happened to the value of money (most importantly the dollar, other fiat currencies, and gold) and 2) US stocks... See more

-Most US spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Defense is unaffected by recent policy. All of this spending is sideways-to-up for the foreseeable future, which trickles into the consumer economy, the healthcare sector, and the defense sector.

-The two-speed economy is likely to remain in effect. High interest rates (even after some cuts),... See more