Potential Asset Rotations: Deep Dive Analysis

When looking at U.S. markets, I think there’s a little bit from both of those areas that can be helpful. During periods of fiscal dominance, the general trends are that 1) governments often try to restrict the flow of capital in subtle or overt ways, 2) asset prices are often not as nominally bearish as you might expect since the denominator is wea

The orange line could occur if a lot of private European and Japanese investors buy un-hedged Treasuries in a risk-off move, which would delay the need for increased U.S. debt monetization by the Federal Reserve. Either way, I expect down for the dollar in the multi-year long run, but the path to get there has these two main outcomes, in my view.

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Since then, liquidity has continued to be problematic, and so recently, the Treasury re-introduced buybacks. With buybacks, the Treasury can buy off-the-run illiquid securities with newly-issued on-the-run securities. Despite the fact that their total debt is growing, the Treasury is regularly buying back some of the bonds it has previously issued.

What should we do about this fact? Does this throw off market signals about what the bond market is telling us, since the “bond market” in reference to actual private bond investors is less than half of the recent Treasury demand, while a semi-government institution is more than half of Treasury demand, against a backdrop of record Treasury supply