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Pascal’s Market
Burniske warns, "Markets are a powerful technology that is meant to serve society's virtues, but markets are dangerous as a virtue system in-and-of themselves. If we continue to allow markets to dictate our virtues, we will perpetuate a society that the majority now whisper is selfish, divisive, imbalanced - threatening, even." With everything in o... See more
Sam McCarthy • Governance as a Source of Value
Of course, markets are not available in every case. It will often be necessary to pick something else as a default. Even common sense can serve as a Bayesian prior, a check against taking the output of a statistical model too credulously. (These models are approximations and often rather crude ones, even if they seem to promise mathematical precisi
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
“Risk” characterizes a non-deterministic system for which the space of possible outcomes can be assigned probabilities.
Sacha Meyers • Bitcoin Is Venice: Essays on the Past and Future of Capitalism
Even if their forecasts were true (they aren’t), no individual can get the same returns as the market unless he has infinite pockets and no uncle points. This is conflating ensemble probability and time probability. If the investor has to eventually reduce his exposure because of losses, or because of retirement, or because he got divorced to marry
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