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Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
Here's the simplest definition of optionality: Optionality = the right, but not the obligation, to take action
Richard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
Every tiny facet of the world is so ridiculously fascinating that you’d have to be deaf, dumb, and blind not to notice. If you want to be interesting, be interested. Lack of intrinsic interest is a big red flag for learning any skill.
Richard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
A successful business or career pathway usually emerges organically from the bottom-up, instead of being planned from the top-down. This approach benefits from volatility. It doesn’t rely on complex multi-decade plans full of contingencies and breakage points and prediction errors. It looks a lot more like Darwinian evolution than intelligent
... See moreRichard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
To illustrate what I mean, here’s the strategy I use for my own portfolio. For reasons that will become clear, I call it the ‘Bastard’s Barbell’. This is a split between low-cost index funds on one side, and risky speculative bets on the other (Fig. 4.3).
Richard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
To carry a debt is to be ‘owned’ by someone—or by multiple someones. Your creditor has the right to collect, or otherwise make your life difficult; you have an obligation to make repayments. In servicing the loan, you have to earn an income somehow. Now you have two owners: your creditor, and your employer.
Richard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
Leverage gives you exposure to major upside, but it's not an asymmetric opportunity. If the market falls, any losses you make are also multiplied several times over. If property prices fall by 20 per cent, in our scenario above you’re down $100,000, which means your deposit has been completely wiped out.
Richard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
According to Aristotle, our reason for existence is to be happy, in the fullest sense of the word—what the Greeks called eudaimonia. Hedonic pleasure is not enough to reach a state of flourishing: we must also live a life of virtue, and use all of our capabilities to their fullest. To live without virtue is to fail to reach our true purpose—like a
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- Knowledge Capital All your skills, education, credentials, and experience—work, or otherwise. 4. Health Capital Your physical fitness, mental health, mobility, and energy. Remember the kind of asymmetries we're looking for. An attractive option has a fixed downside, and potentially unlimited upside.
Richard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
The economist Frank Knight formalised the distinction between risk and uncertainty in his PhD thesis more than 100 years ago, with the key difference being that risk can be quantified and measured, while true uncertainty cannot.