I am also a fan of prediction markets, which can help identify the significance of events in real time , before the dust settles and there is consensus on which direction is which. The Polymarket on Sam Altman is very helpful in giving a useful summary of the ultimate consequences of hour-by-hour revelations and negotiations, giving much-needed... See more

Compared to this, the common e/acc message of "you're already a hero just the way you are" is understandably extremely appealing. A d/acc message, one that says "you should build, and build profitable things, but be much more selective and intentional in making sure you are building things that help you and humanity thrive", may be a winner.

enthusiasm about modern military technology as a force for good seems to require believing that the dominant technological power will reliably be one of the good guys in most conflicts, now and in the future : military technology is good because military technology is being built and controlled by America and America is good. Does being an e/acc... See more

Such solutions don't work in all domains - we certainly don't want a world where everyone has to wear literal body armor - but in domains where we can build technology to make the world more defense-favoring, there is enormous value in doing so.

A first natural step is brain-computer interfaces . Brain-computer interfaces can give humans much more direct access to more-and-more powerful forms of computation and cognition, reducing the two-way communication loop between man and machine from seconds to milliseconds. This would also greatly reduce the "mental effort" cost to getting a... See more

When there is no need for political-ideological work and war mobilization, the supreme commander of war only needs to consider the situation itself as if it were a game of chess and completely ignore the thoughts and emotions of the pawns/knights/rooks on the chessboard. War becomes a purely technological game.

Furthermore, political-ideological

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The Chinese proverb 天高皇帝远 ("tian gao huang di yuan"), "the sky is high, the emperor is far away", encapsulates a basic fact about the limits of centralization in politics. Even in a nominally large and despotic empire - in fact, especially if the despotic empire is large, there are practical limits to the leadership's reach and attention, the... See more

One other argument in favor of this direction is that it may be more socially palatable than simply shouting "pause AI" without a complementary message providing an alternative path forward. It will require a philosophical shift from the current mentality that tech advancements that touch humans are dangerous but advancements that are separate from... See more

Anarchist societies in Zomia, famously profiled in James C Scott's new book "The Art of Not Being Governed", are another example: they too maintain their freedom and independence in large part thanks to mountainous terrain. Meanwhile, the Eurasian steppes are the exact opposite of a governance utopia. Sarah Paine's exposition of maritime versus... See more