Mental Models for Leadership in the Modern Age

Since all methods of predicting the future are flawed, Scenario Planning is a model for considering multiple realistic potential futures and assessing the risks and opportunities of each scenario. This can lead to better positioning today for an uncertain future.

System 2 thinking is more process oriented and is more aligned with deliberate analysis and deep thought. There is a wide range of analytical methods and models and logical assessment techniques that can be taught for system 2 thinking, the most important take away for the executive is that formal training for this type of analysis is available.

System 1 thinking is quick and intuitive and is best done by highly experienced practitioners. Optimizing System 1 thinking is possible but it is generally best gained from experience.

Michele Wucker introduced the term Gray Rhino to describe events we should all see coming but overlook because we don’t take them seriously enough. A Gray Rhino is a highly probable, high impact, yet neglected threat.