Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

To respond to market cycles and understand their message, one realization is more important than all others: the risk in investing doesn’t come primarily from the economy, the companies, the securities, the stock certificates or the exchange buildings. It comes from the behavior of the market participants. So do most of the opportunities for except

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In the absence of the ability to see the future, how can we position our portfolios for what lies ahead? I think much of the answer lies in understanding where the market stands in its cycle and what that implies for its future movements. As I wrote in The Most Important Thing, “we may never know where we’re going, but we’d better have a good idea

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psychology and the cycle in valuation stand in their swings. To refuse to buy—and perhaps to sell—when too-positive psychology and the willingness to assign too-high valuations cause prices to soar to peak levels. And to buy when downcast psychology and the desertion of valuation standards on the downside cause panicky investors to create bargains

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