Losing Faith In Contrarianism
Windsor did not achieve superior results by going against the grain at every chance. Stubborn, knee-jerk contrarians follow a recipe forcatastrophe. Savvy contrarians keep their minds open, leavened by a sense of history and a sense of humor.
John Neff • John Neff on Investing
Imagine that your chance of being right is three percent, and your corresponding chance of being wrong is ninety-seven percent. Each opposing view, however, has only a two percent chance of being right, which of course is a bit less than your own chance of being right. Yet there are many such opposing views, so even if yours is the best, you’re pro
... See moreTyler Cowen • Stubborn Attachments: A Vision for a Society of Free, Prosperous, and Responsible Individuals
I think today the variance of weirdness is increasing. Conformists can conform like never before, due say to social media and the Girardian desire to mimic others. But unusual people can connect with other unusual people, and make each other much weirder and more "niche." For instance, every possible variant of political views seems to be "out ther... See more
Noah Smith • Interview: Tyler Cowen, economist and public intellectual
There may even be a phenomenon like Dunning-Kruger at work, where the most conventional-minded people are confident that they're independent-minded, while the genuinely independent-minded worry they might not be independent-minded enough.