Luck and risk are both real and hard to identify. Do so when judging both yourself and others. Respect the power of luck and risk and you’ll have a better chance of focusing on things you can actually control. You’ll also have a better chance of finding the right role models.

The importance of admitting that we can’t predict or control the future. The benefits of studying the patterns of the past and using them as a rough guide to what could happen next. The inevitability that cycles will reverse and reckless excess will be punished. The possibility of turning cyclicality to our advantage by behaving countercyclically.