When you frame a decision as a bet, you're forced to explicitly acknowledge that you're operating under uncertainty. You have to assign some probability to different outcomes, however rough. You have to think about expected value rather than guaranteed results. My friend made a bet that had, let's say, a 70% chance of working out well and a 30%

... See more

The world contains more uncertainty than we're comfortable acknowledging. We want to believe that if we just think hard enough, gather enough information, and make the right choice, we can ensure success. We want to believe that good decision-making guarantees good outcomes. But it doesn't. Sometimes you make the best possible choice given the

... See more