Saved by Lucas Kohorst
Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke
I am also a fan of prediction markets, which can help identify the significance of events in real time , before the dust settles and there is consensus on which direction is which. The Polymarket on Sam Altman is very helpful in giving a useful summary of the ultimate consequences of hour-by-hour revelations and negotiations, giving much-needed con... See more
My Techno-Optimism
Some investors and academics saw the markets’ zigs and zags as random, arguing that all possible information was already baked into prices, so only news, which is impossible to predict, could push prices higher or lower. Others believed that price shifts reflected efforts by investors to react to and predict economic and corporate news, efforts tha
... See moreGregory Zuckerman • The Man Who Solved the Market
The formation of bubbles isn’t so much about people irrationally participating in long-term investing. They’re about people somewhat rationally moving toward short-term trading to capture momentum that had been feeding on itself.
Morgan Housel • The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness
There is a kind of symbiosis between the irrational traders and the skilled ones—just as, in a poker game, good players need some fish at the table to make the game profitable to play in. In the financial literature, these irrational traders are known as “noise traders.” As the economist Fisher Black wrote in a 1986 essay simply called “Noise”: Noi
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
And yet, if the market is trending toward a bubble, efficient-market hypothesis would imply that some traders should step in to stop it, expecting to make enormous profits by selling the stock short. Eventually, the theory will be right: all bubbles burst. However, they can take a long time to pop.