Leading_Economic_Index

Real private final consumption expenditure has been averaging at 3.5-4 per cent over the past five years despite the exuberant leveraged spending. And while the contraction in financial savings was seen as a sign of improving household confidence, it ironically accompanied a languid actual consumption, indicating faltering real incomes.

Indeed, the

Back in 2020, the misery index briefly spiked due to lockdown-induced unemployment, and consumer sentiment fell, but that reversed quickly as lockdowns ended and as fiscal stimulus went out to people and businesses. In 2022, as inflation washed over the economy, the misery index rose to very high levels, and consumer sentiment fell to deeply recess

foundations were laid in Victorian times. Now it is changing radically. Standard economics is suddenly being challenged by a number of new approaches: behavioral economics, neuroeconomics, new institutional economics. One of the new approaches came to life at the Santa Fe Institute: complexity economics.

wealth and opportunity gaps and overindebtedness that have led to economic downturns

Cynamon and Fazzari see few prospects for a meaningful recovery among the majority of consumers and “fear that the demand drag from rising inequality that was postponed for decades by bottom 95 percent borrowing is now slowing consumption growth and will continue to do so in coming years.”

The Best Leading Indicator The best indicator? People do predictable things as they age. That’s it in a nutshell. So, let’s look at how demographics drive economic trends, from the macro to the micro, in modern middle-class economies.