Leading_Economic_Index

What these indices have in common is that, with the exception of credit spread measures which are mean-reverting and don’t trend, they only consider the change in a factor rather than the outright level. This is because a change in an indicator is more meaningful to determining the impulse to growth. In other words, an indicator in a steady state h

Consumer confidence is another notoriously tricky variable. Sometimes consumers are among the first to pick up warning signs in the economy. But they can also be among the last to detect recoveries, with the public often perceiving the economy to be in recession long after a recession is technically over. Thus, economists debate whether consumer co

Back in 2020, the misery index briefly spiked due to lockdown-induced unemployment, and consumer sentiment fell, but that reversed quickly as lockdowns ended and as fiscal stimulus went out to people and businesses. In 2022, as inflation washed over the economy, the misery index rose to very high levels, and consumer sentiment fell to deeply recess

Globally, during this cycle:

-China has had strong industrial production, but weak consumer spending.

-Europe has been relatively weak both in industrial production and consumer spending.

-The United States has been strong in consumer spending, but relatively weak in industrial production.