Just a moment...
The asymmetry (antifragility of postdictors): postdictors can cherry-pick and produce instances in which their opinions played out and discard mispredictions into the bowels of history. It is like a free option—to them; we pay for it.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
In Bayesland, when two people pass each other by and find that they have different forecasts, they are obliged to do one of two things. The first option is to come to a consensus and revise their forecasts to match. If my sandwich board says that Nadal has a 30 percent chance to win Wimbledon, and yours says that he has a 50 percent chance instead,
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