lowkey bruh moment that prediction markets are hyperstition mechanisms that make the future more deterministic by pooling attention between different agents (individuals, nation states, companies) and increase both the incentives and opportunity costs of cashing out on information asymmetry

But more recently, prediction markets have developed an odd sort of problem. There seems to be a feedback mechanism now whereby the betting-market odds reify themselves.

What do we mean by that? In the case of Brexit, it goes like this: Different surveys give different results, and we all know not to trust the polls, which have notoriously failed in... See more

Once a prediction market becomes large enough, it transitions from being truth-seeking to being tautology-seeking.