July 2024 Newsletter: Rates Insensitivity in the Downcycle
4th Quarter Commentary January 2024
A perspective on historical economic eras and the implications for current market risks and investment strategies, with a focus on factors such as global trade, labor arbitrage, and the rise of China.
horizonkinetics.comData Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta!
Aswath Damodaranaswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
The US is likely heading toward:
Investment Implications
- Lower rates (circa 3%) despite near-term inflation
- More liquidity injections (US$1.5 trillion in 2026)
- Continued unconventional policy tools (Treasury QE, stable coin-driven demand)
Investment Implications
- Risk-On: favor Bitcoin, equities, and growth assets
- Watch for Fed rate cuts and monitor US Treasury bill issuanc