July 2024 Newsletter: Rates Insensitivity in the Downcycle
What should we do about this fact? Does this throw off market signals about what the bond market is telling us, since the “bond market” in reference to actual private bond investors is less than half of the recent Treasury demand, while a semi-government institution is more than half of Treasury demand, against a backdrop of record Treasury supply
... See moreLyn Alden • May 2024 Newsletter: The Bond Market Is the “Dumb Money” Now
In my Far from Equilibrium Economics and Finance course, the first two articles I have my PhD students read are Friedrich von Hayek’s Economics and Knowledge (1937) and The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) , von Hayek’s classic papers that describe a market economy as a solution to the division of knowledge problem. The third article I have them
... See moreDr. John Rutledge • How to Think About the Deficit, the National Debt, and Interest Rates
Back in 2020, the misery index briefly spiked due to lockdown-induced unemployment, and consumer sentiment fell, but that reversed quickly as lockdowns ended and as fiscal stimulus went out to people and businesses. In 2022, as inflation washed over the economy, the misery index rose to very high levels, and consumer sentiment fell to deeply recess
... See moreLyn Alden • Deep Dive: Emerging Markets
