It's 2004 all over again
Any policy that would be good for one state, the new thinking goes, would be even better if it were enforced across all states. So party leaders urge partisans to vote the party ticket everywhere—that is, for the like-minded governor and senator and congressperson and president (and indirectly for like-minded Supreme Court justices) that can make i
... See moreNeil Howe • The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End
“But Democrats need to admit that they are at the end of their own cycle of politics. The Obama coalition is over. It is defeated and exhausted. What comes next needs to be new. That means going to new places and being open to new voices. A politics right for the next era will not be a politics designed to win the last election. It’s not going to b
... See moreWest Virginia, almost all white, was a Democratic state until 2000 (since that year it’s voted Republican in every presidential election). If you look at county-by-county national electoral maps, 2000 is the year when vast rural areas turned decisively and permanently red. Something more than just the Democrats’ principled embrace of the Black free
... See moreGeorge Packer • Last Best Hope: America in Crisis and Renewal
Now, stepping back a bit, they shouldn’t be. The signature obsessions of Republican politics since 2020 — election denialism, book banning, abortion bans and the crusades against trans and other gender-nonconforming people — are either unpopular with most Americans or electoral dead weight. Democrats in local, state and federal elections have score... See more
Jamelle Bouie • Opinion | The Real Reason Trump and Vance Hate Being Called ‘Weird’
Alex Dobrenko added
maybe what’s happening is that what is fringe has changed
But polls do become more accurate the closer you get to Election Day.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
It’s a good thing, in an election where the overwhelming majority of independent voters wanted both Biden and Trump to drop out of the race, for the Democrats to start fresh, with almost four full months to run a campaign emphasizing youth, intelligence, competence, honesty, and change. New is a positive adjective in America.
Biden Drops Out of Reelection Bid, Fully Endorses Kamala Harris
Daniel Wentsch added
I hope Gruber is right on this
Per polling out of Michigan State University, Trump voters in this cycle, at least in Michigan, are much more likely to say that the country is “changing too fast, undermining traditional values” than they were in 2016, when researchers first found a strong correlation between aversion to social change and a vote for Trump.
That dividing line is gro... See more
That dividing line is gro... See more
Christian Paz • Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally showed how racism is the beating heart of election denial
Given the global trend, it’s really Republicans who should be hand-wringing and asking why it’s even close, and the answer is obviously that Trump is a scumbag.