
It's 2004 all over again


Estimates vary, but states Kamala Harris won in 2024 will probably surrender 12 congressional seats - and electoral votes - after the next census.
Tim Daly • Mississippi Can't Possibly Have Good Schools
Because of the nuances of the Electoral College, votes in some states are much more likely to swing the election than others. FiveThirtyEight compiled a “voter power index” (VPI), which compares the relative power of the vote. A VPI of 1 means that a voter in that state has an average chance of swinging the election (~1 in 60 million). A VPI of 2 m... See more