Is Trump really 62% to win?
An idea pursued at Maryland and a couple of other places was to run the weather model over and over, with different initial weather conditions. Alter the conditions slightly, in reasonable ways. Vary the wind speed, or barometric pressure at 10,000 feet, or the ocean temperature, or whatever seemed reasonable to vary. (How you did this was its own
... See moreMichael Lewis • The Fifth Risk
I picked 98 percent as my Trump prediction because Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com was saying 2 percent. I did that for branding and persuasion purposes. It is easier to remember my prediction both because of the way it fits with Silver’s prediction and for its audacity,
Scott Adams • Win Bigly: Persuasion in a World Where Facts Don't Matter
On Sunday, I wrote about a remarkable CBS/YouGov poll that helped me understand why Trump is both politically resilient and politically vulnerable. In short, a majority of Americans like many of Trump’s objectives, but they don’t like his methods. Democrats win when they contest Trump’s methods, but they lose when they contest at least some of his ... See more
