Inflationary_Cycles

The massive shift to index funds over the past 15 years or so drove the valuations of the largest index components to levels which guarantee poor returns going forward. Poor returns, in turn, will guarantee these inflows will turn to outflows and the virtuous cycle will become a vicious one.” Or as Nassim Taleb says, “We have been fragilizing the e

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This framework gives important insights in a debt-driven World. First-and-foremost, financial markets increasingly operate as vast debt refinancing mechanisms not new capital-raising vehicles . Second, domestic and international capital flows represent key drivers of the economic system. Increasingly cross-border flows determine trade balances, not

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The speed at which things are adapting is accelerating. Everyone can feel this, but not everyone is able to put their finger on HOW they should respond to it. The pitfall I see is that many old-school thinkers are ignoring the speed at which things are changing with the excuse of “this time isn’t different.” On the other side of the spectrum, you h

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Here are some summary points that you should keep in mind as you seek to understand the Information Revolution: A shift in the megapolitical foundations of power normally unfolds far in advance of the actual revolutions in the use of power. Incomes are usually falling when a major transition begins, often because a society has rendered itself crisi

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