When you look at the past, the past will always be deterministic, since only one single observation took place. Our mind will interpret most events not with the preceding ones in mind, but the following ones. Imagine taking a test knowing the answer. While we know that history flows forward, it is difficult to realize that we envision it backward.

There are two possible ways for us to reason, the heuristics being part of one—rationality being part of the other.

Certainly, the odds in games where the rules are clearly and explicitly defined are computable and the risks consequently measured. But not in the real world.

The countries that fared well are not a large segment of the initial cohort; randomness would be expected to allow a few investment classes to fare extremely well. I wonder if those “experts” who make foolish (and self-serving) statements like “markets will always go up in any twenty-year period” are aware of this problem.

Note also the implication that wealth does not count so much into one’s well-being as the route one uses to get to it.

Currencies that exhibit the largest historical stability, for example, are the most prone to crashes.

They are totally free from their past actions. Every day is a clean slate.

The stoic is a person who combines the qualities of wisdom, upright dealing, and courage. The stoic will thus be immune from life’s gyrations as he will be superior to the wounds from some of life’s dirty tricks.

If rational traders detect a pattern of stocks rising on Mondays, then, immediately such a pattern becomes detectable, it would be ironed out by people buying on Friday in anticipation of such an effect. There is no point searching for patterns that are available to everyone with a brokerage account; once detected, they would be self-canceling.