Incerto 4-Book Bundle
It’s much easier to sell “Look what I did for you” than “Look what I avoided for you.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
What I propose is a road map to modify our man-made systems to let the simple—and natural—take their course.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
happy errors bring gains, unhappy errors bring losses.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
And when you take risks, insults by half-men (small men, those who don’t risk anything) are similar to barks by nonhuman animals: you can’t feel insulted by a dog.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
If the science of statistics can benefit me in anything, I will use it. If it poses a threat, then I will not. I want to take the best of what the past can give me without its dangers. Accordingly, I will use statistics and inductive methods to make aggressive bets, but I will not use them to manage my risks and exposure.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
How to use statistics.
attributes—it is quite a myth that planning helps corporations: in fact we saw that the world is too random and unpredictable to base a policy on visibility of the future. What survives comes from the interplay of some fitness and environmental conditions.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
I associate rare events with any misunderstanding of the risks derived from a narrow interpretation of past time series.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
As a matter of fact, assuming the manager shows up unsolicited at your door, it will be practically impossible to figure out whether he is good or bad.