How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
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How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
As researchers in political science and as economists, we see three enticing advantages of forecasts from prediction markets, compared with poll-based forecasts of election outcomes: 1) Markets have full coverage of outcomes. They covered all primaries and caucuses in 2016, when polls covered about 50 percent of possible contests. Similarly, for... See more
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
The French Polymarket whale commissioned polls with a specific alternate methodology, the “neighbor method”
1. What a baller
2. What a killer example of how betting markets can surface contrarian, high quality signals https://t.co/MILqyLJqL8
Prediction markets work because traders can see all of the standard forecast data and aggregate it along with other idiosyncratic or dispersed information about the election. Traders can aggregate polling data or follow published poll aggregates, and they can add in any other information they think is relevant.