How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
cnn.com
How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
The French Polymarket whale commissioned polls with a specific alternate methodology, the “neighbor method”
1. What a baller
2. What a killer example of how betting markets can surface contrarian, high quality signals https://t.co/MILqyLJqL8
Prediction markets work because traders can see all of the standard forecast data and aggregate it along with other idiosyncratic or dispersed information about the election. Traders can aggregate polling data or follow published poll aggregates, and they can add in any other information they think is relevant.
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research... See more