How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
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How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
The French Polymarket whale commissioned polls with a specific alternate methodology, the “neighbor method”
1. What a baller
2. What a killer example of how betting markets can surface contrarian, high quality signals https://t.co/MILqyLJqL8
Two media takeaways from last night's election:
- Prediction markets are a core part of news consumption. The bettors aren't always perfect, but they're part of how we follow developing events now.
- NY1 is such a good network if you're going to watch TV for local politics.
Joe Weisenthalx.comI am also a fan of prediction markets, which can help identify the significance of events in real time , before the dust settles and there is consensus on which direction is which. The Polymarket on Sam Altman is very helpful in giving a useful summary of the ultimate consequences of hour-by-hour revelations and negotiations, giving much-needed... See more
My Techno-Optimism
As researchers in political science and as economists, we see three enticing advantages of forecasts from prediction markets, compared with poll-based forecasts of election outcomes: 1) Markets have full coverage of outcomes. They covered all primaries and caucuses in 2016, when polls covered about 50 percent of possible contests. Similarly, for... See more
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
