How Many Trillion-Dollar Companies Should There Be?

Internal prediction market

This concept of the staking of limited resources as a measure of how strongly beliefs are held and likely to come true is why prediction markets like sports books or Metaculus are often seen as the best sources of truth for the future.

There are some phenomenal products in some of the companies that were overfunded and are haunted by past decisions. The valuations at which these companies raised capital set them on the wrong path - a path that fails to attract and reward critical talent, a path that incentivizes excess expenditure for growth at the expense of structuring a busine... See more

I am certain that the model of employees working for multiple companies at the same time is here to stay and will grow over time. The only question for employers is whether they will lead or follow in this new model of work.