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We’re wired up to think about the world in simple linear terms, because that’s how most of the things around us work. If you plant one seed, you get one carrot. If you produce one more dongle, you earn one more dollar. Your hair steadily grows by a fraction of a millimetre each day; you don’t just wake up one morning looking like the lovechild of T
... See moreRichard Meadows • Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World
The trouble with exponential growth is that the curve feels flat in the beginning. It isn't; it's still a wonderful exponential curve. But we can't grasp that intuitively, so we underrate exponential growth in its early stages.
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A Smart Bear » The Elephant in the room: The myth of exponential hypergrowth
Jason Cohenlongform.asmartbear.com
However, growth in magnetic memory is not primarily a matter of Moore’s law, but includes advances in mechanical and electromagnetic systems. The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of hosts. These two charts plot the same data, but one is on an exponential axis and the other is linear. So from the persp... See more
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
The trajectory of very recent history often tells a distorted story. Making this even harder, in the short-term, assuming an accelerating growth rate might make you look silly or lose money. The progression isn’t smooth. A period of rapid growth might give way to a period of slower growth. Progress happens in S-Curves -- similar to the Gartner Hype... See more
notboring.co • Compounding Crazy
The growth model for this imaginary app runs from bottom left to top right. The boxes represent absolute numbers: the number of website visitors, conversions, and churned users. The arrows represent conversion percentages, like the conversion rate from visitor to trial user.