Framers

In our thoughts, we frequently run through a myriad of possibilities of how the world might be different, playing the game of life several moves ahead. Counterfactuals are a way to see beyond the reality that surrounds us. Without this ability to imagine “what could have been,” “what has been,” and “what could be,” we would be forever stuck in the

The Minimal-Change Principle When selecting which constraints to loosen or tighten, we should aim for the fewest, not the most, modifications. We should aspire to minimal change.

Humans think using mental models. These are representations of reality that make the world comprehensible. They allow us to see patterns, predict how things will unfold, and make sense of the circumstances we encounter.

Normally we learn when we receive information: when a teacher instructs, a book describes, an apprentice tinkers. But in the case of causal explanations, the person who imparts information, who does the explaining, actually learns as well.

In 2008 Nokia led the world in mobile phone sales. When Apple introduced the iPhone, few thought it would take off. The trend was to make handsets smaller and cheaper, but Apple’s was bulkier, pricier, and buggier. Nokia’s frame came from the conservative telecom industry, valuing practicality and reliability. Apple’s frame came from the breathless

The minimal-change principle pushes us in a particular direction when picking counterfactuals: we tend to omit rather than add. It is easier for us to imagine a world without some features of reality than to introduce ones that do not yet exist. If you are asked to imagine a color you haven’t seen before, you likely will fail.

The telephone was first thought about as a way to listen to music remotely: people would dial in to hear a concert. The phonograph was considered to be a way to communicate messages:

The repeated and frequent failures of causal framing have prompted many people to suggest that the whole project of causal reasoning is futile. They seemingly have David Hume on their side. The apparent flaws of causal thinking were articulated by the Scottish philosopher in the 1700s. An empiricist, Hume believed that all knowledge derives only fr

We have seen that computers cannot consider causality and cannot concoct counterfactuals. They also cannot conjure up constraints. Algorithms on their own are unable to impose boundaries and limitations.

the meaning here is somewhat different: not how something is positioned but a deliberate act of harnessing mental models to elicit options prior to making a decision.