Facebook tests Forecast, an app for making predictions about world events, like COVID-19
Sarah Pereztechcrunch.com
Saved by sari
Facebook tests Forecast, an app for making predictions about world events, like COVID-19
What makes Facebook’s gambit unique is its global scope, its corporate backing, and its deep faith in technology. Zuckerberg sounds convinced that the new Facebook AI can not only identify “meaningful communities” but also “strengthen our social fabric and bring the world closer together.” That is far more ambitious than using AI to drive a car or
... See moreYuval Noah Harari • 21 Lessons for the 21st Century
The best forecasters view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. Their aim is not to convince their teammates of their own expertise, but to encourage their teammates to help them falsify their own notions. In the sweep of humanity, that is not normal.
(Journalist) David Epstein • Range: How Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World
People must recognize that the accuracy of forecasts in systems with phase transitions is dismal, even by so-called experts.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Making the right kind of forecast means thinking deeply about where people are headed and what emerging beliefs, behaviors, mentalities, value systems, ideals and cultural ideas can be brought to the surface with the right conditions.
Technology creates new opportunities and branches in the human path, but it is only larger ideas and mindsets that d... See more
Technology creates new opportunities and branches in the human path, but it is only larger ideas and mindsets that d... See more
Jasmine Bina • There Is No Brand Strategy Without a Prediction
I am also a fan of prediction markets, which can help identify the significance of events in real time , before the dust settles and there is consensus on which direction is which. The Polymarket on Sam Altman is very helpful in giving a useful summary of the ultimate consequences of hour-by-hour revelations and negotiations, giving much-needed con... See more
My Techno-Optimism
Predictions also might fail at the ultimate goal of making society safer if they can’t be meaningfully turned into actions.