Facebook tests Forecast, an app for making predictions about world events, like COVID-19
Sarah Pereztechcrunch.com
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Facebook tests Forecast, an app for making predictions about world events, like COVID-19
Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
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Forecasting Research Institute
forecastingresearch.org
I am also a fan of prediction markets, which can help identify the significance of events in real time , before the dust settles and there is consensus on which direction is which. The Polymarket on Sam Altman is very helpful in giving a useful summary of the ultimate consequences of hour-by-hour revelations and negotiations, giving much-needed con... See more
My Techno-Optimism
In his note, Abramov, who’s worked at the social network for four years, compared Facebook to a nuclear power plant. Facebook, unlike traditional media sources, can generate “social energy” at a scale never seen before, he said.
“But even getting small details wrong can lead to disastrous consequences,” he wrote. “Social media has enough power to da
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