Everything Is Predictable

‘Necessarily,’ wrote David Howie, a historian of statistics, ‘these inferences were tentative. They were advanced not with certainty but with degrees of confidence that were updated or modified to account for new information.’95 That is: they were done in a Bayesian fashion. Each time Jeffreys got new information, he updated his prior confidence in

predicting the future is integral to a scientific paradigm’s success.