Everyone Believes It; Most Will Be Wrong: Motley Thoughts on Investing and the Economy

“The market is rarely dead wrong. The history books are littered with people who are ‘smarter than the market’ who have lost all their money. When you’re in an investment and it’s not working out, you really need to take a step back: ‘What don’t I understand in this situation?’ If you really think you’ve resolved all the unknowns that you can possi

Many finance and investment decisions are rooted in watching what other people do and either copying them or betting against them. But when you don’t know why someone behaves like they do you won’t know how long they’ll continue acting that way, what will make them change their mind, or whether they’ll ever learn their lesson.

There is significant pressure to conform to group-think, even when the group is clearly wrong

He wrote: “The moral of this is not that ignorance is an advantage. But some of us are too much attracted by the thought of rare things and forget the law of averages in diagnosis.”