End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration
What we need is a synthetic theory that encompasses both demographic mechanisms (with the associated economic consequences) and power relations (surplusextraction mechanisms).
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
The former CIA analyst Martin Gurri predicted these fracturing effects in his 2014 book, The Revolt of the Public. Gurri’s analysis focused on the authority-subverting effects of information’s exponential growth, beginning with the internet in the 1990s. Writing nearly a decade ago, Gurri could already see the power of social media as a universal s... See more
The Atlantic • Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid
The new economic crisis flows from the very success of the Reagan cycle, which generated a great deal of wealth but distributed it in the end, as it did in the beginning, with a focus on increasing money for investment. But as with all cycles, the problem solved in the current cycle generates the problem to solve in the next. The social problem tha
... See moreGeorge Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
the single most reliable leading indicator of civil war or revolution is bankrupt government finances combined with big wealth gaps.
Ray Dalio • Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
There must also be some vulnerability of the state in the form of internal divisions and economic or political reverses. Otherwise, popular discontent is unvoiced, and popular opposition is simply suppressed.
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
