Economics & Marginalia: July 12, 2024
Macroeconomics, for instance, can be nonsense since it is easier to macrobull t than microbull t—nobody can tell if a theory really works.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
sari and added
to recap: our history is just a story, our analysis of the present may presently be dated, and our forecasts for the future may be confounded by volatility, reflexivity, competing curves, and the limits of predictability. With that said, all models are wrong, but some are useful; so with caveats cataloged and provisos provided, let’s proceed!
Balaji Srinivasan • The Network State: How To Start a New Country
Funding agencies need to stop funding under-powered studies using sloppy statistical methods and small group sizes. This will mean that fewer groups will receive funding. However, without some pain there will be no improvement. Labs should be forced to adapt to a harsh new reality that they will only get funding if they conduct high powered, pre-re... See more
Dan Elton • The deluge of crappy papers must stop
Johanna added
Complexity Economics: Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute's 2019 Fall Symposium
W. Brian Arthur, Eric D. Beinhocker,
amazon.com
good science, is based on the assumption that your interventions won’t work. That last sentence is the one that most often makes people want to fire me (my charming disposition aside). It is a very, very hard thing to be about a month into a project and have your CBO say that they’ve selected several pilots that they expect to fail. But that cultur
... See moreMatt Wallaert • Start at the End: How to Build Products That Create Change
Kaustubh Sule added
.implementation
David Lang: Most scientists are under tremendous pressure to constantly publish. That realization caused me to view scientific expertise through the lens of incentives. I’m nervous to use that language, because it’s the same line that conspiracy theorists use to deny and obfuscate facts, but I do think it’s the fault line.
future.a16z.com • 21 Experts on the Future of Expertise - Future
sari added
