Does probability exist?
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Does probability exist?
Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)
David Spiegelhalternature.com
Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
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How? Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser. Mother natu
... See moreNassim Nicholas Taleb • Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto Book 1)
Second, weather forecasts are subject to uncertain initial conditions. The probabilistic expression of weather forecasts (“there’s a 70 percent chance of rain”) arises not because there is any inherent randomness in the weather. Rather, the problem is that meteorologists assume they have imprecise measurements of what the initial conditions were li
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
The theory of probability is the only mathematical tool available to help map the unknown and the uncontrollable. It is fortunate that this tool, while tricky, is extraordinarily powerful and convenient. Benoit Mandelbrot
Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts
Our lack of perfect information about the world gives rise to all of probability theory, and its usefulness.