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It’s the most extreme divergence between consumer sentiment and the stock market in over 40 years. This next version of the chart shows the same data, but it’s measured in terms of how far they are off from their highs. We have look back at the early 1980s to find a similarly low sentiment reading while stocks were near their highs: This divergence
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in 2022, both consumer sentiment and the misery index (the sum of inflation and unemployment levels) reached recessionary levels, but again without an NBER-defined recession:
This, I would argue, is a hallmark of fiscal dominance. The credit cycle on its own over the past couple years was typical for a recession, but the credit cycle is now smaller
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