Analysts have been trying to forecast or spot a recession in the United States for years, looking for the classic disinflationary recession. And maybe we’ll still get one in the year ahead. But fiscal dominance is a different environment than the past four decades in the United States, and in many ways the United States already went through an

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in 2022, both consumer sentiment and the misery index (the sum of inflation and unemployment levels) reached recessionary levels, but again without an NBER-defined recession:

This, I would argue, is a hallmark of fiscal dominance. The credit cycle on its own over the past couple years was typical for a recession, but the credit cycle is now smaller

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