Duncan Green argued that:

“We need to distinguish between theories of change (how the system itself is changing, without our involvement) and theories of action (the small differences we can make, usually in alliance with others). If theories of change start by putting us at the centre of everything, that is a serious problem — we almost never are.

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having an initial systems map prior to developing a theory of change could be a useful step

Our influence is limited , and many other actors play an important role in achieving any significant outcomes

Morell argues that it’s worth signalling the strength of relationships through thicker or thinner lines in diagrams.

A rather better framing, in my view, is assessing degrees of uncertainty .

Craig Valters highlighted the recurrent problem that:

“Organizations imply that change in a society revolves around them and their program, rather than around a range of interrelated contextual factors, of which their program is part.”

In Causal-Link Monitoring, Heather Britt and Richard Hummelbrunner focus on how likely critical assumptions are to fail (i.e., how vulnerable they are).

Toby Lowe underscored that ‘your work is a small part of a much larger web of entangled and interdependent activity and social forces.’

Alternatively, Dave Snowden recommends a vector theory of change. In this, you forget about long-term goals entirely. You start from where you are and map the system’s current dispositional state, identify a desired direction of travel, but not a final destination . If you have a broad outcome area, or options for different possible outcomes you do... See more