Instead of trying to figure out how they might do such a trade better the next time, Jane Street’s bosses decided they’d made a mistake by trying to do such a trade at all. “It was, We have no intuition for this, and we’re not going to do it, and we’re going to all not talk about trading on elections for a while until this isn’t seared into our mem

Markets with overconfident traders will produce extremely high trading volumes, increased volatility, strange correlations in stock prices from day to day, and below-average returns for active traders—all the things that we observe in the real world.