Black Swan Farming

Picking a few hits requires a tolerance for many bad ideas, mediocre ideas, and even good ideas cursed with bad timing. Above all, it requires a business model that supports the inevitability that most new things fail; the most promising ideas often attract a chorus of skeptics; and one big hit can pay for a thousand flops.

I think many entrepreneurs, at least many first-time entrepreneurs, pick an idea that seems “manageable” or “less risky” than other ideas. In fact, these “safer” ideas may actually be riskier than bigger ideas. The problem is, an idea that does not seem risky to you probably doesn’t seem risky to lot of other people. Given how risk-averse our socie

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Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money You could say every single startup will fail – you’ll be right 90% of the time, but you won’t be rich