Saved by Chad Hudson
Beyond Controls: The Power of Risk Scenarios
While experience is useful, scenario analysis is one of an architect’s most powerful tools to allow iterative design without building whole systems. By modeling likely scenarios, an architect can discover if a particular solution will, in fact, work well.
Neal Ford • Software Architecture: The Hard Parts
... See moreMost critically, these roles tend to be self-reinforcing. Organizations using fear-based future narratives often develop risk-averse cultures that further reinforce defensive positioning. Conversely, organizations with aspirational future narratives tend to attract optimistic, innovation-minded talent that strengthens their future-positive culture.
Patrick Tanguay (Sentiers) • 📡 No.338 — Is AI Progress Slowing Down? ⊗ Future Orientation ⊗ the Power of Critical Sensemaking
I define “creative risk” as the wild ideas in our mind’s eye that we would love to pursue, but don’t because the cost (time, money, reputation...) is too much to bear. As a result, we play it safe in the form of making sequels in Hollywood, emulating successful campaigns in advertising, and “staying in our lane” or what we’re comfortable with in ou... See more
Scott Belsky • Talent Density, Feeling Special as a Service, Moving Past Prompts, and Product Leadership.
Since all methods of predicting the future are flawed, Scenario Planning is a model for considering multiple realistic potential futures and assessing the risks and opportunities of each scenario. This can lead to better positioning today for an uncertain future.
Bob Gourley • Mental Models for Leadership in the Modern Age
When it comes to big social and economic shifts, no one can predict the future; the level of complexity is just too great. Scenarios let us construct plausible, internally consistent visions that help us frame the range of possibilities and the kinds of issues we are likely to confront along the way.