Betting on Unknown Unknowns

As you move forward toward an uncertain future, you maintain a kind of “running expectation” of how promising things seem.

shine a spotlight on the evidence that is silent. Lurking in the background are unexamined assumptions about society and institutions. To fix recency bias, study history—the longer and broader, the better. To envision the future, investors need some idea of the normal baseline. Discover which things change and which endure. Statistics, probability,

We can also see this radical uncertainty as supporting a new enchantment with human life and choice; we can accept that most or all of our actions will have consequences we cannot possibly predict. On average these consequences will be positive, just as average economic growth is positive, but we will always wonder about the future consequences we