Betting on Unknown Unknowns

But it’s only when we sacrifice the certainty of answers, when we take our training wheels off, and when we dare to wander away from the street lamps that breakthroughs happen. If you stick to the familiar, you won’t find the unexpected. Those who get ahead in this century will dance with the great unknown and find danger, rather than comfort, in t

... See more

These bedazzled methods fall under the category that Futurist Ilkka Tuomi labels as Epistemic Uncertainty , and the argument goes something like this:

“I’m unsure about the answer to this problem, but I can solve it by gathering more data. Once I gather more data related to the problem, I will be able to devise a solution.”

However, as Tuomi astutely... See more

First order effects of inventions are easy to predict but secondary, tertiary, and n+1 effects are very hard. That’s almost laughable to say about a sector like AI where new research / startups / demos / regulations / firings / resignations / fundings are happening at light speed. Like literally there’s something mind-blowing that happens every wee... See more