Betting on acts of terrorism - UK Indymedia
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Betting on acts of terrorism - UK Indymedia
Artificially-High Stock Prices Until very recently share prices, by general consensus, were set purely by market forces (though they were influenced somewhat by the Fed’s control of short term-interest rates and government tax and spending laws). Whether the market went up or down was not generally seen as a pressing policy matter for the federal g
... See moreJohn Rubino • The Money Bubble
The Fall Of Intrade And The Business Of Betting On Real Life
buzzfeed.com
Using Prediction Markets to Enhance US Intelligence Capabilities
Using prediction markets to improve US intelligence capabilities. The document discusses the potential of prediction markets to enhance strategic and tactical intelligence work within the US Intelligence Community.
cia.govThe Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective
The document discusses the historical evolution of political betting markets across various countries and time periods, highlighting the long-standing tradition of wagering on political events throughout history.
gwern.netThis information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.
Mohit Agarwal • Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets?
The uncertainty in question will not be an accident of our circumstances — it will be entirely deliberate. We want to tempt others to engage in economic behavior, the output of which is uncertain, at the opportunity cost of behavior that is presumably much more certain. In effect, we are buying uncertainty with certainty.
Sacha Meyers • Bitcoin Is Venice: Essays on the Past and Future of Capitalism
-Treasury: eg. What community initiatives should be funded?