August 2025 Newsletter: Tighter Fiscal, Looser Monetary
Chamath's Three Takeaways from Liberation Day 🇺🇸
1) Trump will go through with the tariffs, don't expect a grand capitulation
-- "Trump has had a 40-year view on tariffs."
-- "They're going to go through with this and they're going to see it... See more
The All-In Podcastx.com
Short Dive: The Trump Administration's Fiscal Strategy
Last week, I was at the White House and met with President Trump, Elon, as well as Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, and other members of the administration.
It was a whirlwind few days, I left D.C. feeling hopeful about where America is... See more
There’s no single best way to quantify it, but if I had to point to one set of charts, I would say that fiscal dominance occurs when annual public deficits exceed the sum of annual net bank lending and annual net corporate bond issuance on a sustained basis, especially without having been caused by a recession.
Lyn Alden • July 2024 Newsletter: Rates Insensitivity in the Downcycle
... See moreThe original Trump tax cut and spending expansion pushed up the deficit at a time when the economy did not need a stimulus. The deficit then surged with the first COVID relief bill, but that made sense given the impact of the economic shutdown. By contrast, massive additional stimulus under Biden, when the economy was already rapidly recovering,
Analysts have been trying to forecast or spot a recession in the United States for years, looking for the classic disinflationary recession. And maybe we’ll still get one in the year ahead. But fiscal dominance is a different environment than the past four decades in the United States, and in many ways the United States already went through an
... See more